“Sinking” is the word most people use, and it is not quite right. Tuvalu’s coral islands are not subsiding. The problem is the ocean: it is rising, and almost all of Tuvalu’s land sits within a few metres of it. The highest natural point in the country is about 4.6 metres above sea level.
How much has the sea risen around Tuvalu?
At Funafuti, the capital atoll, sea level rose about 14 centimetres between 1993 and 2024, according to NASA’s Sea Level Change Team. NASA expects about 19 centimetres more over the next 30 years, whatever happens to emissions. After 2050 the amount depends heavily on how much the world warms: in a 3.0 °C scenario, Tuvalu would see around 72 centimetres of rise by 2100.
Averages hide the worst days. The highest water level each day is creeping up, so the king tides and storm surges that already wash across parts of Funafuti reach further inland, more often.
The numbers
Four metres of land against a rising sea
Year
2100
Rise since 1995–2014
+0.77 m
Higher than 2026
+69 cm
Likely range
0.63–1.01 m
2026205020752100
Fig. 2 Schematic atoll profile, vertical scale exaggerated. Projections: IPCC AR6, Table 9.9, global mean sea level, median and likely range relative to 1995–2014. The IPCC publishes values for 2030, 2050, 2090 and 2100; the years between are interpolated. Local sea level at Tuvalu can differ, and king tides and storm surge add to this.
Is it true that Tuvalu is growing?
Partly. In 2018, researchers at the University of Auckland compared aerial photos and satellite images of Tuvalu from 1971 to 2014. They found the country’s total land area grew by about 2.9%, or 73 hectares, as waves and storms piled up sand and gravel. Of the 101 islands studied, 73 grew, 28 shrank and one eroded away entirely.
That finding is often quoted as proof that Tuvalu is safe. The researchers themselves did not say so. They described a constant process of change, said it was unclear whether islands could keep up with faster sea-level rise, and noted that people tend to live on islands that are less stable. New sand on an uninhabited islet does not protect a house, a well or a garden on Funafuti.
What does rising water mean for daily life?
Flooding. King tides push seawater up through the porous coral ground and across roads and gardens.
Food. Salt water reaches the pits where pulaka, a giant swamp taro and a staple food, is grown.
Fresh water. Groundwater turns brackish, leaving households more dependent on rainwater tanks.
Erosion. Storms strip beaches and threaten homes, graves and infrastructure built close to the shore.
Raising new land. The Tuvalu Coastal Adaptation Project has built about 7 hectares of raised land on Funafuti, and a second phase completed in 2025 added 8 hectares more. The new land is designed to stay above projected sea levels beyond 2100.
Securing statehood. Since 1 October 2023, Tuvalu’s Constitution has declared that the State and its maritime zones are permanent, whatever the effects of climate change. Read more about Tuvalu’s digital nation.
Giving people choices. Under the Falepili Union with Australia, up to 280 Tuvaluans a year can move to Australia with permanent residency, while keeping the right to come home.
Pressing the world to act. Tuvalu’s long-term future depends on how fast global emissions fall. That is why the Ambassador presses Tuvalu’s case in the Commonwealth, at UNESCO and in the UN climate talks. See Tuvalu’s climate position.
Quick answers
Questions people ask
Is Tuvalu sinking?
The land itself is not sinking, but the sea around it is rising. Sea level at Funafuti rose about 14 cm between 1993 and 2024, and NASA expects about 19 cm more over the next 30 years. With most land only a few metres above the sea, flooding and erosion are getting worse.
When will Tuvalu be underwater?
No one can give a date. How far the sea rises after 2050 depends on global emissions. NASA projects around 72 cm of rise at Funafuti by 2100 in a 3.0 °C warming scenario, which would put much of today’s land within reach of regular flooding long before it is permanently covered.
Is it true that Tuvalu is growing?
A 2018 study found Tuvalu’s total land area grew by about 2.9% between 1971 and 2014 as waves moved sand and gravel. The same researchers warned that this may not continue under faster sea-level rise, and that growth on uninhabited islets does not protect homes, water supplies and crops on the populated ones.
Can Tuvalu be saved?
Tuvalu is adapting on several fronts: raising new land on Funafuti above projected sea levels, writing permanent statehood into its Constitution, agreeing the Falepili Union with Australia, and keeping a digital record of the nation. Its long-term future also depends on how fast the world cuts emissions.
What is the highest point in Tuvalu?
About 4.6 metres above sea level, on the island of Niulakita. On Funafuti, where more than half the population lives, much of the land is far lower than that.
